03 Nov Final Comments the Weekend Before the Election
I want to say this in case it can be of any practical benefit to thosereading it: I PROMISE you that at this point there is no point in paying attention to the press, polls, etc. The spin will be out in full force for the next 72 hours, and it will be worthless.
The lines are drawn: Turnout will determine the winner. The enthusiasm factor sure seems like it is a lot higher for Romney than Obama (the polls can not measure this), and if this intuition is correct, Romney will be the winner. Independents, early voting, evangelicals, 2010 sentiment – these things all point to Romney winning, and perhaps going away.
Should the Hispanic and African-American vote be surprisingly high, and should the youth vote, (a) Be higher than expected, and (b) Repeat in its 2008 percentage to Obama, the incumbent radical is likely to win. I would be shocked if that turnout result happened, but it is possible.
I think that at 5:00 pm pacific time on Tuesday, if we are hearing the news networks waffle in being able to call Obama the winner in Pennsylvania, it very likely means it is going to be a big night for Mitt Romney. That does not mean Obama will lose Pennsylvania, but it does mean that if it is “too close to call” for a while, I suspect the other states Romney needs are going to come his way. And by the way, should Pennsylvania actually get called for Romney, Obama will be giving a concession speech very shortly thereafter, and sparing himself the humiliation of a night where America watches him lose in dramatic fashion. That would be my ideal scenario. I suspect, though, that even if Romney wins Pennsylvania, it will be close and into the evening before we know.
The scenario where Romney wins close is that he wins FL, NC, and VA (all pretty much mandatory for him to stay alive), and then wins WI, CO, and NH (without IA, or NV, or even OH), or of course, he could just win OH and be done. The scenario where he wins going away or that he wins all of the states I mentioned above (besides possibly NV), but also wins PA. I believe that will happen. I am not counting on MN or MI coming into our column. But PA, CO, WI, and OH could all come our way (PA being the biggest challenge there), and that would result in a big night for Mitt Romney (and all who care about America).
Obama’s path is simple: Take either VA or FL from Romney, and end the race; or, just simply hold OH, and hope Romney doesn’t replace it with a WI/CO/NH combo … This is the situation where we end up with a Romney popular vote win but an Obama electoral college win. It is very rare, very unlikely, but certainly possible.
The polls are all nonsense in the coming days. At this point 30-40% of people have already voted. Turnout models are just totally worthless now. My intuition continues to be that the 2010 turnout is more likely than the 2008 one, and that Presidents with a record like Obama’s do not get elected in our country. The shift to nannyism amongst certain demographics has been severe enough that Obama can still win (otherwise, this would be a Reagan/Mondale blowout were it not for the uninformed college-age voters and handout-receiving blocs who make it possible for Obama). But I believe that there is a massive momentum in the country against the leftism and polarization Obama has drowned us in, and we will see it on Tuesday. Pray I am right.
Vote, unless you are one of those nannyists I reference above. Vote for Romney-Ryan. And tell everyone you know to. Make it a big win for Romney, so that I can sleep on Tuesday night. -) And God Bless America, no matter what happens.